~46K is possible when MtGox starts the hacked Bitcoin distribution.
MtGox currently holds 138,985 BTC worth approximately $9 billion, most of which belong to hacked accounts. We know that the distribution will start soon to compensate the victims of the hack. They are in great profit, so I guess most will sell to realize the gains.
How much lower do you think Bitcoin may drop when these $btc start to be distributed?